Just this guy, you know?
There you go conflating Jews and Israel. Apart from that you have an arguable point.
Probability is useful because it can make predictions that can be tested against reality.
Yes. But you’d have to run the test repeatedly and see if the outcome, i.e. Clinton winning, happens as often as the model predicts.
But we only get to run an election once. And there is no guarantee that the most likely outcome will happen on the first try.
That’s not exactly what happened. Starlink was already disabled in Crimea when the attack was launched and Musk refused to enable it specifically for the attack. Then the initial reports got a bit tangled up.
But yes, none of this should be up to Musk.
That’s just not true. Go to https://ev-database.org/ and compare the dry weight of the different models. You don’t add 66kg going from standard to long range in software.
If I remember this correctly, the square of the error for the sum of (or difference between) two independent measurements is the sum of the squares of the individual errors. Gauss something.
That would make the error for the 8 point swing be sqrt(2×3.8²) or about 5.4. So at least the swing is significant in each state.
Also, the error for the average of 3 variables is sqrt(e1²+e2²+e3²)/3 or 2.2 so the average lead in the 3 states is significant.
But we can’t make a significant claim about the lead in each state.
Can confirm.
Source: married to journalist who counts down the hours and triple checks the time zone math to avoid this.
He could, if he were a normal person, mean that he won’t be able to run again if he wins this time, so people won’t have to come out to vote for him.
The EU has declared Twitter and a few others to be gate-keepers and they will now be held to a higher standard. But I don’t think the EU is going to use this power to save US democracy.
Did you know Biden is almost 1.04 times older than Trump?
Well played
I rode from the UK to northern Italy with nothing but an early hiking go’s unit that had no map. Just an arrow pointing to Torino. The trip over the Alps was very random.